A Hotter Future with Climate Change
Written by Sarena Yang
Edited by Benjamin Blue
Jan 23rd 2022
Edited by Benjamin Blue
Jan 23rd 2022
“Cities Setting Records for Hottest Summer in History.” “Worst Drought on Record.” Such headlines have become so common that we may not even bat an eye. At the moment, it may seem fine to bear a few extra days of heat or to conserve water during a drought. However, things will only get worse and if nothing is done, future generations will pay the price.
In a recent study by Thiery et al. (2021), future generations are at risk of experiencing a “two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events.” These extreme events include six categories: wildfires, crop failure, droughts, river floods, heat waves, and tropical cyclones (Thiery et al., 2021). This means the next generation will experience many more extreme events over their lifetime than current or past generations. Data was taken from simulations that compared groups born in 1960 and those born in 2020 (Thiery et al., 2021). They found that a “6 year old in 2020 will experience twice as many wildfires and tropical cyclones, three times more river floods, four times more crop failures, five times more droughts, and 36 times more heat waves” (Thiery et al., 2021). In simulations run under all forecasted temperature increases, groups born in 2020 face many times more extreme events in their lifetimes than groups born in 1960 would ever face.
In addition, climate change disproportionately affects different regions. Compared to groups born in 1960, groups born in 2020 will be much more exposed to extreme events from the Middle East to North Africa (Thiery et al., 2021). They found that children born in or after 2020 in Europe and Central Asia will experience 3.8-4.0 times more extreme events, while children born in 2020 in sub-Saharan Africa will experience 5.4-5.9 times more extreme events (Thiery et al., 2021). Compounding population growth with climate change suggests that populations in certain regions will face even greater extreme event risk.
Future generations will face many more extreme events in their lifetime, with certain regions at even higher risk. Current projections suggest a 3 degree Celsius increase in global temperature by the year 2100 (Thiery et al., 2021). However, even a reduction in the projection from 3 degrees Celsius to 1.5 degrees Celsius can decrease the next generation’s exposure to extreme events (Thiery et al., 2021). Although we cannot completely reverse the climate change happening, actions today can flatten the global temperature’s upward trend. We can minimize the risk for future generations by focusing on climate policies locally and internationally.
References
Thiery et al. Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes. Science,
374(6564), 2021, 158–160., https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339.
Image Source: “Environmental pollution round concept Free Vector” by Macrovector licensed under Freepik License